At the end of 2024, I would not have forecast that increases in defence spending would be taken from our Overseas Development Assistance, and a Cabinet Minister resigning over it suggests no one else did either. Speculation is now rife that other government spending is to be cut to support a rapid expansion of military capability, the media this week alluded to cuts to welfare spending as well as on net zero.

I’m not arguing on the rights or wrongs, just pointing out the risks to what our industry has been banking on.

The Boiler Upgrade Scheme is the biggest single driver of heat pump sales – and with that we are also talking about hot water cylinder and radiator sales. If this becomes less of a priority for the government, (the Financial Times suggested even MPs determined to support net zero want to “arm, baby, arm.”) So, we need to be aware of the risks facing this side of the industry. One in ten of EUA members are involved in hot water cylinders, from traditional tanks to smart products that are connected to low carbon technologies. When politicians listen to the latest comment from the US President, they may not appreciate the potential fall-out on cylinder manufacturers, but we do.

And the rest of Europe has also shown the UK a harsh lesson in this area. Sales of heat pumps plummeted across the continent again in 2024, following falls in 2023, as subsidies started to get withdrawn. Reliance upon government subsidies always comes with a risk. The trick is to get industry weaned off subsidies and artificial market interventions, without doing so, industry is at the whim of events and not controlling its own destiny.