China, climate friend, or enemy?

29th Sep 2025

 

The UN General Assembly or UNGA to its friends met last week and climate lobbyists waited patiently to hear from China. What commitments might they give towards carbon emission reductions given they are the biggest global emitter by far. The world waited and well frankly was underwhelmed. A commitment for a reduction of between 7 and 10 per cent from their peak by 2035 hardly sets the world alight in terms of global leadership (and doesn’t stop it warming).

Over the past few months, I have noticed China is used as a touchstone for statements around carbon emissions. The sceptics quote China’s huge increases in emissions to justify doing nothing and the green lobby point to the growing renewable sector in China. I’m afraid to say, both are misplaced in their judgements.

The green champions of China, and I read their briefings daily, show no signs of tempering their support. Proclaiming that the country “could” reach peak emissions by 2028, implying they will still increase until then, which is hardly something to boast about. That’s why I suspect promising the UN to reduce them from a peak that hasn’t been reached yet, is something of a damp squib.

The reality is that carbon emissions globally cause the climate to change, not just emissions from the UK. Wearing a hairshirt in the UK will not protect us against the impact of climate change, so we need to approach our progress with caution and not prove the climate sceptics right when they bring China into every discussion.

A one per cent reduction in China’s emissions is roughly the equivalent of a 40 per cent reduction in the UK, so what happens in China really does matter so much more than what happens in the UK. It doesn’t mean we do nothing; nor does it support the argument that the UK  “leads the world.”

And as an addendum, this is wholly based on carbon production, which many view as a flawed measure, giving rise to inadvertent consequences – such as closing down UK production to offshore it in China, only to import products to consume here.